For the uninitiated, the Law of Large Numbers has something to do with the fact that when you repeat an action a large number of times the mean stays close to an expected value. Flip a coin 1000 times and you'll probably end up with around 500 heads.
The same principle can be applied to movies. Make 22 James Bond movies and the average result is approximately on par with the quality we expect from the franchise as a whole.
Read More Chapter 2: Statistical Theory and Really Bad Movies
Now what if we apply this principle to a movie franchise that has consistently been so utterly deplorable that even statisticians believed that a good outcome was beyond the realm of possibility? This equates to the practical situation of flipping a coin 1000 times and each attempt landing in a steaming pile of cow pie.
The movie franchise I refer to of course is the unholy offspring of the 2000 Wayans Brother's "Scary Movie." Okay, so they got it right the first time and everybody had a laugh with this new style of parody. Then came "Scary Movie" 2, 3, and 4, then "Not Another Teen Movie," "Date Movie," "Epic Movie," "Meet the Spartans," "Super Hero Movie," and the aptly named "Disaster Movie."
The possibility of flipping 1000 consecutive tails exists. The probability of this outcome however is infinitesimally small. Somewhere along the way you are bound to eventually flip a heads. I believe, my good readers that the Wayan's Brothers may be about to turn that coin with "Dance Flick."
The 2:27 second trailer is actually quite funny. I will give the Wayan's Brothers the benefit of the doubt, mostly because many of the irreverent spoof movies that followed their 2000 hit were not made by them. Stay tuned for my review of this movie once it hits the Best Buy bargain DVD rack.
Monday, November 17, 2008
The Law of Large Numbers
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